221 Picabo St Unit F, Interest 3-B

Ketchum, ID 83340

$240,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,500 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$1,579
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $-810/mo
• Annual: $-9,722/yr
• Cap rate: 2.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.28%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-810 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (48.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#76 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Blaine County District (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #47 of 92 in ID (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ernest Hemingway Steam School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B-, #84 of 357 statewide, top 24%, 501 students, 20% FRL); Wood River Middle School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade D-, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 568 students, 32% FRL); Wood River High School (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #83 of 169 statewide, top 49%, 986 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 50% of rent.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Blaine County in 2024 (19 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blaine County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?