221 Picabo St Unit F, Interest 3-B · Ketchum, ID 83340

$240,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,500 sqft · Condo · 44 Days on market

Built 2002 Excellent condition $1579/mo HOA · 50% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine waking up steps from world-class ski lifts, a sparkling mountain creek, and miles of hiking and biking trails — all from one of the most sought-after addresses in the Rocky Mountains. This elegantly appointed condo sleeps 12 and delivers the full mountain resort experience: stunning peaks from every window, a private elevator, 2-car garage, and daily housekeeping service. Resort-caliber amenities await just beyond your door — a fully equipped gym, steam room, outdoor pool, and hot tub. And when adventure calls beyond these mountains, exchange privileges open the door to luxury resorts worldwide. Thoughtfully updated with contemporary furnishings (2024), refinished floors

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Hot tub
• Thoughtfully updated

Tags

• PRIVATE ELEVATOR
• FULLY EQUIPPED GYM
• STEAM ROOM
• OUTDOOR POOL
• HOT TUB
• THOUGHTFULLY UPDATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Warm Springs Village subdivision
• Financial info: $4,738.50 quarterly HOA fee
• HOA & community: Association dues payable quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 20); Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Finished driveway
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Broadband internet
• Home design: Condominium; Built in 2002; Builder: Nash Construction Inc.
• Construction: Frame, stone and stucco construction; Crawl space foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Hot tub/spa; Views; Sidewalks; Bus on city route; Full automatic sprinkler system; Property is on a flood plain; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Built-in oven/range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom located on the upper level; One bedroom on the main level; Two bedrooms on the lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 4 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Two fireplaces (gas insert)
• Interior features: Bath in master bedroom; Guest room; Den/office; Great room; Two master bedrooms; Walk-in closets; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on the lower level; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-810 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (48.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#76 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Blaine County District (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #47 of 92 in ID (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ernest Hemingway Steam School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B-, #84 of 357 statewide, top 24%, 501 students, 20% FRL); Wood River Middle School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade D-, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 568 students, 32% FRL); Wood River High School (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #83 of 169 statewide, top 49%, 986 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Blaine County in 2024 (19 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Blaine County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 50% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,770 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.28%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $80,170
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $278,771
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83340

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,579
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $-810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,182

Max offer price $122,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-644	-5% $-727	+0% $-810	+5% $-893	+10% $-976
Rent	-10% $-1,060	-5% $-935	+0% $-810	+5% $-685	+10% $-561
Rate	-1.0pp $-689	-0.5pp $-749	base $-810	+0.5pp $-872	+1.0pp $-936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,579 · $18,948/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-04-18
   listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥82°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,031
• − Management: −$3,031
• − HOA: −$18,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$13,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained and updated condo is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a prime location. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the flooring and smart home technology to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Update the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms to modern tile or laminate — Modern flooring can enhance the aesthetic appeal and increase the property's resale value.
• Both Install smart home technology in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart home technology can improve convenience and energy efficiency, making the property more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Update the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms to modern tile or laminate — Modern flooring can enhance the aesthetic appeal and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart home technology can improve convenience and energy efficiency, making the property more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine County District
• NCES district ID: 1600300
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,869
• Composite: 38.51/100
• National rank: #4175
• State rank: #47 of 92 in ID

Livability — Ketchum

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #9340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ketchum, ID
• Population (ZIP): 5,379

Population outlook (Blaine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,350 people
• By 2030: 22,411 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 21,897 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 21,062 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 19,591 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 17,221 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Serbian 7% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blaine

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.7) · D 64.4% · R 32.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: 33.2pp · 2024: 31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.7 2020: D+36.8 2016: D+28.7 2012: D+20.1 2008: D+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.04%
• Current HPI: 272.384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $240,000 IMLS