14000 John Aregood Pass

Elgin, TX 78621

$232,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax + insurance: −$628
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,435/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $64,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.6% below list).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: exterior paint — Peeling and chipping
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but not inspected
• Major: interior walls — No visible interior, but not inspected
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but not inspected
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen, but not inspected