3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,060 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,671/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$421
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$561
Net cashflow
$640/mo
Annual
$7,685/yr
Cap rate
10.89%
Cash-on-cash
16.41%
DSCR
1.73
1% rule
1.34%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#46 in FL, #867 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D-.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 310 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,671/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2772% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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