730 Amesbury Rd

Conroe, TX 77316

$318,290F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,669
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,554/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $89,121

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $318k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.