730 Amesbury Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$318,290

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 $141/sqft · 14% above area Est $279k · 14% over $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,335 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,528
• List price: $318,290
• Delta: 14.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,825
• Equity at exit: $47,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-101,331
• Equity at exit: $27,520

Cash invested: $89,121 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,669
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $280,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-123	+0% $-213	+5% $-303	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-299	+0% $-213	+5% $-127	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-132	base $-213	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,572
• Closing costs: $9,549
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	8d	1	0.27mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	0.40mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	21d	1	0.42mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	5d	1	0.44mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $318,290 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

3. 2026-05-09
   price $239,990 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $244,990 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

5. 2026-05-04
   status Active 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

6. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

7. 2026-04-13
   price $318,290 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

8. 2026-04-06
   price $249,990 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

9. 2026-04-03
   price $270,990 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

10. 2026-03-31
    listed $318,290 Active 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Chapel Run, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

11. 2024-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,825 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,842/yr (+$404/mo · 492.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,829
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$1,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,259
• Taxable loss: −$8,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $318,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $318,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $270,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $318,290 HARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+87.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.