278 Lawrence Hill Rd

Weston, VT 05161

$1,299,000F

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,972 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,462/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,812
• Tax + insurance: −$1,545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-5,622/mo
• Annual: $-67,467/yr
• Cap rate: 1.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.55%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.27%
• Cash to close: $363,720

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-67k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (76.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (73.3% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $306k (76.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Flood Brook School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #84 of 192 statewide, top 48%, 308 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $540k; list at $1.30M implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.