278 Lawrence Hill Rd · Weston, VT 05161

$1,299,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1996 15 ac lot $327/sqft · at area comps Est $1375k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE! Weston. Views. 15 acres with pond. Built for family, friends and entertaining, this custom colonial offers unique architectural features: sunken living room with wet bar, tray ceiling, recessed lighting, dentil moulding and a handsome fireplace with Vermont marble surround. The cherry split staircase leading to the second floor, accessed from the spacious foyer or the dining room, provides an attractive, functional detail. Private spacious deck, accessed from the living and the dining rooms, is great for summer entertaining and enjoying the mountain views. The den and ground floor bedroom and full bath complete the first floor. The master suite, children/guest wing, laundry room and additional bedroom/office are on the second floor. The big swimming pond, perennial gardens, stone walls and hiking trails enhance the property. Close to all summer and winter outdoor activities for which the area is known. Theatre, shopping, restaurants are all nearby. This is a fabulous offer

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Hot tub
• 15.1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SWIMMING POND
• FOUR PREMIER SKI AREAS
• MATURE PERENNIAL GARDENS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SUN DRENCHED BACK DECK
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage; Dirt driveway
• Utilities: Drilled well water source; Septic system with concrete leach field; 200 Amp electric service with circuit breaker; Internet available via cable and fiber optic; Cable service (Fidium); Fuel service by Cota and Cota
• Home design: Colonial-style home; White exterior; Existing construction
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle (architectural) roof; Built in 1996
• Exterior features: Country setting; Landscaped grounds; Mountain view; Pond on property; Scenic views; Near skiing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Induction cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Water heater (owned)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom suite (2nd level); Bedroom (2nd level); Bedroom (2nd level); Bedroom (2nd level); Two offices/studies (one on 1st level, one on 2nd level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Manufactured flooring; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Gas stove heating; Wall AC units
• Interior features: 12 total rooms; Bulkhead access to basement; Basement with concrete floor, unfinished storage space and interior stairs
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (2nd level); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-67k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (76.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (73.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (76.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Flood Brook School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #84 of 192 statewide, top 48%, 308 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $540k; list at $1.30M implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $305,808 (76.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.27% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.55%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 31.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,374,727
• List price: $1,299,000
• Delta: -5.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -54.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-568,906
• Equity at exit: $193,685

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.63×
• Total profit: $-957,818
• Equity at exit: $112,314

Cash invested: $363,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05161

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 31.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,812
• Tax from tax record: −$1,004 /mo · $12,045/yr
• Insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-5,622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,579

Max offer price $305,808

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $324,750
• Closing costs: $38,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,299,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,299,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $1,299,000 Active 1931-char remark
17. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $540,000
18. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus $540,000 Closed 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Weston. Views. 15 acres with pond. Built for family, friends and entertaining, this custom colonial offers unique architectural features: sunken living room with wet bar, tray ceiling, recessed lighting, dentil moulding and a handsome fireplace with Vermont marble surround. The cherry split staircase leading to the second floor, accessed from the spacious foyer or the dining room, provides an attractive, functional detail. Private spacious deck, accessed from the living and the dining rooms, is great for summer entertaining and enjoying the mountain views. The den and ground floor bedroom and full bath complete the first floor. The master suite, children/guest wing, laundry room and additional bedroom/office are on the second floor. The big swimming pond, perennial gardens, stone walls and hiking trails enhance the property. Close to all summer and winter outdoor activities for which the area is known. Theatre, shopping, restaurants are all nearby. This is a fabulous offer

19. 2018-07-10
    status Pending 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Weston. Views. 15 acres with pond. Built for family, friends and entertaining, this custom colonial offers unique architectural features: sunken living room with wet bar, tray ceiling, recessed lighting, dentil moulding and a handsome fireplace with Vermont marble surround. The cherry split staircase leading to the second floor, accessed from the spacious foyer or the dining room, provides an attractive, functional detail. Private spacious deck, accessed from the living and the dining rooms, is great for summer entertaining and enjoying the mountain views. The den and ground floor bedroom and full bath complete the first floor. The master suite, children/guest wing, laundry room and additional bedroom/office are on the second floor. The big swimming pond, perennial gardens, stone walls and hiking trails enhance the property. Close to all summer and winter outdoor activities for which the area is known. Theatre, shopping, restaurants are all nearby. This is a fabulous offer

20. 2018-06-20
    historical Active with Contract 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Weston. Views. 15 acres with pond. Built for family, friends and entertaining, this custom colonial offers unique architectural features: sunken living room with wet bar, tray ceiling, recessed lighting, dentil moulding and a handsome fireplace with Vermont marble surround. The cherry split staircase leading to the second floor, accessed from the spacious foyer or the dining room, provides an attractive, functional detail. Private spacious deck, accessed from the living and the dining rooms, is great for summer entertaining and enjoying the mountain views. The den and ground floor bedroom and full bath complete the first floor. The master suite, children/guest wing, laundry room and additional bedroom/office are on the second floor. The big swimming pond, perennial gardens, stone walls and hiking trails enhance the property. Close to all summer and winter outdoor activities for which the area is known. Theatre, shopping, restaurants are all nearby. This is a fabulous offer

21. 2018-06-11
    listed $550,000 Active 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Weston. Views. 15 acres with pond. Built for family, friends and entertaining, this custom colonial offers unique architectural features: sunken living room with wet bar, tray ceiling, recessed lighting, dentil moulding and a handsome fireplace with Vermont marble surround. The cherry split staircase leading to the second floor, accessed from the spacious foyer or the dining room, provides an attractive, functional detail. Private spacious deck, accessed from the living and the dining rooms, is great for summer entertaining and enjoying the mountain views. The den and ground floor bedroom and full bath complete the first floor. The master suite, children/guest wing, laundry room and additional bedroom/office are on the second floor. The big swimming pond, perennial gardens, stone walls and hiking trails enhance the property. Close to all summer and winter outdoor activities for which the area is known. Theatre, shopping, restaurants are all nearby. This is a fabulous offer

22. 2017-06-05
    price $549,000
23. 2016-06-10
    price $595,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,045 · $1,004/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,363 · $1,530/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,318/yr (+$526/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,764
• − Property taxes: −$12,045
• − Insurance: −$6,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,323
• − Management: −$3,323
• − Depreciation: −$37,789
• Taxable loss: −$94,198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-44,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Weston

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 759

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.58%
• Current HPI: 181.3305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+118.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $1,299,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $540,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-20 Sold (MLS) $540,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-07-10 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2018-06-20 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2018-06-11 Listed $550,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-06-05 Price Changed $549,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-10 Price Changed $595,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $12,045 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.