2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
956 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Condo
· Active
· 140 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,001/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$270
HOA
−$538
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$-276/mo
Annual
$-3,310/yr
Cap rate
4.64%
Cash-on-cash
-5.91%
DSCR
0.74
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jefferson (713 students, 68% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Natomas High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #788 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 1,229 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 45% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Natomas Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $54k; list at $200k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-VBCBVT4ZSGG882
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29