316 W Lake St

Liberty, NY 12754

$235,500D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,639 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,235
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,678/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $65,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $236k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?