316 W Lake St · Liberty, NY 12754

$235,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1900 0.32 ac lot Est $239k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Awesome location in the Village of Liberty right next to Walnut Mountain Town Park for hiking and outdoor fun. Large cleared lot with detached garage, workshop, shed and a stream offers a great deal of opportunity and this home has more than most village homes. Offering 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths and an open plan, which is rare for a house of this age. Kitchen cabinets are fairly new with a trending shaker profile in a lovely natural wood color. Metal roof is 10 years young, HW heater about 2-3 years and many other upgrades not visible to the naked eye. Interior pictures coming soon!

Key facts

• Large cleared lot
• Shed
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• LARGE CLEARED LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• SHED
• OPEN PLAN
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,078 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,294
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
374 W Lake St	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+2%)	14mo	$230,000	$137	66
329 Chestnut St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (-2%)	22mo	$272,500	$169	54
5452 State Route 55	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-8%)	12mo	$420,000	$280	51
25 Champlin Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,795 (+10%)	23mo	$176,000	$98	45
72 Lincoln Pl	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+12%)	0mo	$269,000	$146	44
3 Pinehurst Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	14mo	$220,000	$146	43
77 Lincoln Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-11%)	17mo	$120,000	$82	37
9 Creamery Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,860 (+14%)	22mo	$228,000	$123	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $114,193
• Equity at exit: $212,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $347,746
• Equity at exit: $457,525

Cash invested: $65,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12754

• Home prices YoY: 28.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,235
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,125/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,298

Max offer price $196,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-157	+0% $-223	+5% $-290	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-303	+0% $-223	+5% $-144	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-163	base $-223	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,875
• Closing costs: $7,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Champlin Ave Unit 1 Liberty, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.53mi
12 Liberty St Liberty, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	24d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   status Active
3. 2026-02-05
   historical
4. 2025-10-24
   price $235,500
5. 2025-10-24
   price $235,500
6. 2025-08-05
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2025-08-04
   listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,125 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,125 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,192
• − Property taxes: −$5,125
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$6,851
• Taxable loss: −$6,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, NY
• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 8,525

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.10%
• Current HPI: 457.3342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $235,500 HVCRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $235,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $249,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,125 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.