7517 Arlo Dr

Amarillo, TX 79119

$305,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-144/mo
• Annual: $-1,731/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Hills El (402 students, 31% FRL); West Plains J H (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 615 students, 33% FRL); West Plains H S (910 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.