7517 Arlo Dr · Amarillo, TX 79119

$305,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Home may qualify for additional builder incentives for Buyer! Sod & Sprinkler included in front & backyard. This home has luxury vinyl flooring throughout, and premium black leathered granite countertops throughout. The Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exterior Luxury vinyl plank flooring in main areas Open-concept kitchen, living, and dining area Granite or quartz countertops throughout Kitchen island with bar seating Stainless steel appliances Enclosed pantry Private primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanity Covered front and back patios

Key facts

• Enclosed pantry
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• SOD AND SPRINKLER INCLUDED
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PATIOS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $40 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Garage faces front; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Brick and brick veneer exterior
• Construction: Built on slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas/electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Disposal; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Hills El (402 students, 31% FRL); West Plains J H (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 615 students, 33% FRL); West Plains H S (910 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,930 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-50,272
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-19,070
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79119

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,672

Max offer price $284,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-39	+0% $-144	+5% $-250	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-243	+0% $-144	+5% $-46	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-67	base $-144	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7615 Arlo Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.02mi
7514 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.03mi
7516 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.03mi
7600 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.03mi
7602 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.09mi
7506 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$3,200	$1.85	15d	1	0.16mi
7517 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	46d	1	0.17mi
7628 S Soncy Rd Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	15d	3	0.63mi
7206 Nick St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	15d	1	0.64mi
Mosley St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	45d	1	0.80mi
Time Sq Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1898	$2,450	$1.29	23d	1	1.30mi
9181 Town Square Blvd #1241 Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,678	$1.68	45d	25	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 643-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $305,000 Active 643-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$7,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-51/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and value by offering modern conveniences and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and value by offering modern conveniences and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,907
• Household income: $114,432
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.08%
• Current HPI: 165.3226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.21%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Delisted — AARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $305,000 AARMLS