2078 Aspen South Ln

Clio, MI 48420

$54,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 325 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $648/mo
• Annual: $7,772/yr
• Cap rate: 20.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.56%
• DSCR: 3.25
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#332 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clio Area School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #269 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 4.7% in Clio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.