146 Tulip Cir

Clay, PA 17522

$92,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $699/mo
• Annual: $8,389/yr
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.39%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $25,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,137 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ephrata Area SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #173 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ephrata Shs (math 78% / reading 44%, grade B-, #74 of 437 statewide, top 17%, 1,317 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 0.8% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.