146 Tulip Cir · Clay, PA 17522

$92,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2002

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Like-new mobile home in great location. Nice landscaping. Large shed & covered porch. Large kitchen with island & tons of cabinet space. 2 full baths. Brand new carpet throughout. Move right in! Lot rent & trash is $371/month.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private bath
• Sunroom

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SUNROOM
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OFFSTREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not located in a federal flood zone; Ownership interest: ground rent
• HOA & community: Association covers snow removal and trash; HOA/association fee frequency: unknown; Ground rent $812 monthly (rented lot)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Central air conditioning (electric); Forced air heating (propane - leased); Electric hot water; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Entry level: main level living; Shingle roof
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio(s); Shed; Rented lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Gas range/oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Interior features: Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Built-in storage; Skylights; Sun/Florida room; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 0.8% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,137 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ephrata Area SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #173 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ephrata Shs (math 78% / reading 44%, grade B-, #74 of 437 statewide, top 17%, 1,317 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,112 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.39%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $27,608
• Equity at exit: $13,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $73,645
• Equity at exit: $7,998

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17522

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,500 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $92,500 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $110,000 Active
16. 2008-10-24
    soldstatus $67,500 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Like-new mobile home in great location. Nice landscaping. Large shed & covered porch. Large kitchen with island & tons of cabinet space. 2 full baths. Brand new carpet throughout. Move right in! Lot rent & trash is $371/month.

17. 2008-09-23
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Like-new mobile home in great location. Nice landscaping. Large shed & covered porch. Large kitchen with island & tons of cabinet space. 2 full baths. Brand new carpet throughout. Move right in! Lot rent & trash is $371/month.

18. 2008-09-18
    listed $68,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Like-new mobile home in great location. Nice landscaping. Large shed & covered porch. Large kitchen with island & tons of cabinet space. 2 full baths. Brand new carpet throughout. Move right in! Lot rent & trash is $371/month.

19. 2004-10-22
    soldstatus $60,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    PC3759 $308 LOT RENT TRASH/ST SNOW REMOVAL PETS ALLOWED ! FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE A SUN ROOM, COVERED 10X13 DECK, OVERSIZE OAK KITCHEN W/ SKYLIGHTS, ISLAND W/ SEATS, PANTRY, ALL APPLIANCES UTILITY ROOM W/ LAUNDRY & STORAGE CLOSETS, 10X9 MBR W/ DOUBLE BOWLS & GARDEN TUB, WALK IN CLOSET, CEILING FANS & MUCH MORE, BARELY BEEN LIVED IN. GREAT CONDITION. WHY BUY NEW? PRICED $1,000S BEL

20. 2004-05-04
    listed $62,500 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    PC3759 $308 LOT RENT TRASH/ST SNOW REMOVAL PETS ALLOWED ! FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE A SUN ROOM, COVERED 10X13 DECK, OVERSIZE OAK KITCHEN W/ SKYLIGHTS, ISLAND W/ SEATS, PANTRY, ALL APPLIANCES UTILITY ROOM W/ LAUNDRY & STORAGE CLOSETS, 10X9 MBR W/ DOUBLE BOWLS & GARDEN TUB, WALK IN CLOSET, CEILING FANS & MUCH MORE, BARELY BEEN LIVED IN. GREAT CONDITION. WHY BUY NEW? PRICED $1,000S BEL

21. 2004-05-04
    historical 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    PC3759 $308 LOT RENT TRASH/ST SNOW REMOVAL PETS ALLOWED ! FORMAL DINING ROOM COULD BE A SUN ROOM, COVERED 10X13 DECK, OVERSIZE OAK KITCHEN W/ SKYLIGHTS, ISLAND W/ SEATS, PANTRY, ALL APPLIANCES UTILITY ROOM W/ LAUNDRY & STORAGE CLOSETS, 10X9 MBR W/ DOUBLE BOWLS & GARDEN TUB, WALK IN CLOSET, CEILING FANS & MUCH MORE, BARELY BEEN LIVED IN. GREAT CONDITION. WHY BUY NEW? PRICED $1,000S BEL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $7,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $6,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ephrata Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209270
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,320
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3078
• State rank: #173 of 539 in PA

Livability — Clay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #13048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 33,852
• Household income: $74,828
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.30%
• Current HPI: 269.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.83%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+76.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $67,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-18 Listed $68,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-10-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-04 Listed $62,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,145 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.