1933 Noble St

Kingsport, TN 37665

$193,600C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $347/mo
• Annual: $4,169/yr
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $54,208

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Kingsport (urban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #26 of 139 in TN (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 277 students, 0% FRL); John Sevier Middle School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #172 of 333 statewide, top 52%, 750 students, 0% FRL); Dobyns - Bennett High School (math 23% / reading 56%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 2,514 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.