The Sabal Plan

Panama City, FL 32405

$378,000B-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,646 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 553 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,828
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$99
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,270
• Net cashflow: $2,271/mo
• Annual: $27,254/yr
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.92%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $97,618

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $378k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $378k).
• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $333k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,050/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Damaged tree — The tree is leaning and appears to be in poor condition, posing a safety hazard.
• Major: Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and requires significant trimming and maintenance to improve curb appeal.
• Major: Exterior paint — The exterior siding appears to be in need of repainting to maintain a good appearance.
• Major: Landscaping maintenance — The overgrown landscaping detracts from the home's curb appeal and requires immediate attention to improve the property's appearance.
• Major: Tree removal — The damaged tree poses a safety hazard and should be removed to prevent further damage or injury.