The Sabal Plan · Panama City, FL 32405

$378,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,646 sqft · MultiFamily · 553 Days on market

Poor condition $99/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

The Sabal plan by Harris Doyle Homes is offered as a lock-and-leave Cottage or in Indigo Lakes. The downstairs primary suite has a spacious tile-to-ceiling shower and walk-in closet. There is also an upstairs primary suite, as well as a third bedroom with its own ensuite bath. The kitchen includes stainless appliances and stone countertops. Multiple garage or carport options are offered with the Sabal plan. This paired home has exterior options ranging from craftsman style to balcony options to take in SweetBay's gorgeous water view!

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• UPSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• STONE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $378,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,636.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $378k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $378k).
• Recommended offer: $333k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,050/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.92%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,636
• List price: $378,000
• Delta: 8.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2323 Discovery Loop Lot 522	0.26mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	12mo	$355,604	$216	78
2331 Discovery Loop Lot 520	0.26mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	14mo	$367,449	$223	76
2327 Discovery Loop Lot 521	0.26mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	14mo	$338,354	$206	76
2319 Discovery Loop Lot 523	0.25mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	15mo	$353,854	$215	76
1207 Wildflower Ct Lot 693	0.60mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	1mo	$413,604	$251	71
1211 Wildflower Ct Lot 694	0.60mi	3/3.5	1,646 (0%)	2mo	$409,093	$249	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $77,780
• Equity at exit: $51,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $212,903
• Equity at exit: $30,144

Cash invested: $97,618 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,828
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,230/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,270
• Net cashflow: $2,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,175

Max offer price $348,636

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,512	-5% $2,392	+0% $2,271	+5% $2,151	+10% $2,030
Rent	-10% $1,793	-5% $2,032	+0% $2,271	+5% $2,510	+10% $2,749
Rate	-1.0pp $2,447	-0.5pp $2,360	base $2,271	+0.5pp $2,181	+1.0pp $2,089

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	3	$6,051
Total (3 units)			$6,050

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,159
• Closing costs: $10,459
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1117 Blazing Star St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	21d	1	0.17mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	14d	26	0.25mi
3625 Frankford Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,877	$1.99	14d	29	0.79mi
1345 Capri Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,925	$1.22	14d	1	1.03mi
618 Gabriel St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,150	$1.10	21d	1	1.26mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	14d	34	1.29mi
3938 Solano Rd Unit 3938 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	21d	1	1.33mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	14d	24	1.36mi
604 Mallory Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1799	$2,500	$1.39	14d	1	1.37mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $378,000 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $378,000 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $378,000 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $378,000 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $378,000 Active 549 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $378,000 Active 547 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $378,000 Active 546 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $378,000 Active 544 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $378,000 Active 543 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $378,000 Active 542 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $378,000 Active 541 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $378,000 Active 538 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,000 Active 537 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $378,000 Active 536 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $378,000 Active 535 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $378,000 Active 534 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $378,000 Active 533 DOM
18. 2024-12-14
    listed $378,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    The Sabal plan by Harris Doyle Homes is offered as a lock-and-leave Cottage or in Indigo Lakes. The downstairs primary suite has a spacious tile-to-ceiling shower and walk-in closet. There is also an upstairs primary suite, as well as a third bedroom with its own ensuite bath. The kitchen includes stainless appliances and stone countertops. Multiple garage or carport options are offered with the Sabal plan. This paired home has exterior options ranging from craftsman style to balcony options to take in SweetBay's gorgeous water view!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,529
• − Property taxes: −$5,230
• − Insurance: −$1,743
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,808
• − Management: −$5,808
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$10,142
• Taxable income: $23,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,557
• After-tax cash flow: $21,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including tree removal, landscaping trimming, and exterior repainting, to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Damaged tree — The tree is leaning and appears to be in poor condition, posing a safety hazard.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and requires significant trimming and maintenance to improve curb appeal.
• Major Exterior paint — The exterior siding appears to be in need of repainting to maintain a good appearance.
• Major Landscaping maintenance — The overgrown landscaping detracts from the home's curb appeal and requires immediate attention to improve the property's appearance.
• Major Tree removal — The damaged tree poses a safety hazard and should be removed to prevent further damage or injury.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Trimming and maintaining the landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property.
• Both Repainting the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can greatly enhance the curb appeal and marketability of the property.
• Both Removing the damaged tree — A safe and aesthetically pleasing environment is crucial for both resale and rental value, and removing the damaged tree addresses both safety and appearance concerns.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Damaged tree · The tree is leaning and appears to be in poor condition, posing a safety hazard.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and requires significant trimming and maintenance to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · The exterior siding appears to be in need of repainting to maintain a good appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping maintenance · The overgrown landscaping detracts from the home's curb appeal and requires immediate attention to improve the property's appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Tree removal · The damaged tree poses a safety hazard and should be removed to prevent further damage or injury.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Trimming and maintaining the landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property. ↑
• Both Repainting the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can greatly enhance the curb appeal and marketability of the property. ↑
• Both Removing the damaged tree — A safe and aesthetically pleasing environment is crucial for both resale and rental value, and removing the damaged tree addresses both safety and appearance concerns. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-14 Listed $378,000 Zillow