9425 Peck Hill Rd

Perrysburg, NY 14070

$114,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-149/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#880 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gowanda Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #513 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.