9425 Peck Hill Rd · Perrysburg, NY 14070

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1962 4.10 ac lot Est $115k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

9425 Peck Hill: Here is your opportunity to own a private secluded get away on 4 beautiful acres with over 600 ft of Rd frontage. Currently used seasonally, this 2 bedroom block built home, is set back surrounded by nature allowing you to escape the outside world. A large 2 story deck with spiral staircase offers a great place to overlook this private retreat. Enter into a formal living room with pellet burning stove, the first floor also finds a master bedroom, full bathroom, fully functional kitchen and good sized family room surrounded with windows almost as if you are sitting amongst the trees. A separate laundry /utility room with separate outside Access. Upstairs could be separated in

Key facts

• 4 beautiful acres
• Pellet burning stove
• Formal living room

Tags

• 4 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• 600 FT OF RD FRONTAGE
• LARGE 2 STORY DECK
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• PELLET BURNING STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#880 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gowanda Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #513 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,455 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,050
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9425 Peck Hill Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,534 (0%)	2mo	$114,900	$75	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $61,855
• Equity at exit: $103,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $182,909
• Equity at exit: $223,225

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14070

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,720/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $112,709

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $20	+0% $-12	+5% $-45	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-56	+0% $-12	+5% $31	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $17	base $-12	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-28
   listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,720
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gowanda Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612390
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,777
• Composite: 34.71/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #513 of 590 in NY

Livability — Perrysburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #17139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,437

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Native American 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.64%
• Current HPI: 269.1092
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $114,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,720 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.