15095 N Thompson Peak Pkwy #2067

Scottsdale, AZ 85260

$320,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$330
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-747/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-747/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Redfield Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #73 of 1,109 statewide, top 7%, 428 students, 20% FRL); Desert Canyon Middle School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #5 of 218 statewide, top 2%, 490 students, 15% FRL); Desert Mountain High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 1,880 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.