195 Tierra Rejada Rd #197

Simi Valley, CA 93065

$219,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $932/mo
• Annual: $11,183/yr
• Cap rate: 11.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.24%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#456 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Simi Valley Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #170 of 517 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 212 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $219k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.0% in Simi Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.