5200 Hams Ford Rd

Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA 22580

$379,800D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-514/mo
• Annual: $-6,172/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $106,344

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (43.0% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#228 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 633 students, 68% FRL); Post Oak Middle (math 48% / reading 63%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 665 students, 64% FRL); Spotsylvania High (math 41% / reading 81%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,388 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 30% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $380k implies a 313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Spotsylvania Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.