5200 Hams Ford Rd · Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA 22580

$379,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Wow - only 2.8 miles from the new Kalahari Resort. This would be a great AirBNB. Main level offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Large screened in front porch. Luxury Vinyl flooring in the living room, dining, kitchen, hallway. Bedrooms are carpeted. Ceiling fans in living and all bedrooms. Rear deck. Kitchen has granite and stainless steel appliances. Mostly all new thru out. Kitchen cabinets, Roof, siding, freshly painted, lighting, updated bathrooms, HVAC, HWH, windows and the list goes on. New distribution box and header lines replaced along with the riser/lid. Agent has all paperwork. The tree stump in front of home is going to be grinded down. Pavers will be added to the walk way. Low

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• 0.46 acre lot
• 8 parking spots

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (43.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in Spotsylvania Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#228 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 633 students, 68% FRL); Post Oak Middle (math 48% / reading 63%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 665 students, 64% FRL); Spotsylvania High (math 41% / reading 81%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,388 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 30% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $380k implies a 313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,333 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $173,875
• Equity at exit: $342,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $537,370
• Equity at exit: $737,868

Cash invested: $106,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22580

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $288,936

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,950
• Closing costs: $11,394
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $379,800 Active
3. 2024-12-06
   soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,114 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,233/yr (+$186/mo · 253.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,275
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$1,899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$11,049
• Taxable loss: −$13,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Spotsylvania Courthouse

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #7688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,956

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 384.3319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+312.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $379,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.