1626 Brier Patch Trl

Wellington, FL 33414

$335,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,204/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbridge Gale Elementary School (math 70% / reading 75%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 915 students, 40% FRL); Emerald Cove Middle School (math 61% / reading 64%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL); Wellington High School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade C+, #102 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,688 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 616 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.