1626 Brier Patch Trl · Wellington, FL 33414

$335,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,496 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1978 1,999 sqft lot Est $275k · 22% over $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Feel right at home in this two-story townhouse in the community of Brier Patch, which has twenty-eight colonial-style townhomes. This corner lot three bedrooms, two and a half bath home features a new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, a spacious living room, large screened-in cover patio, and much more. Located within walking distance to the Wellington Town Center and close to schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Well-kept community
• $160 HOA

Tags

• SCREENED PATIO
• BRIGHT AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• WELL-KEPT COMMUNITY
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not waterfront
• HOA & community: HOA present with monthly fee of $160 covering common areas; Association: Victory Accounting Services; Association amenities: None listed; Pets allowed with possible restrictions and number limits

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Entry at level 1; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Single-story building count listed as 1
• Exterior features: Open patio; Screened porch; Patio and porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total); 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable built-in interior features listed; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbridge Gale Elementary School (math 70% / reading 75%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 915 students, 40% FRL); Emerald Cove Middle School (math 61% / reading 64%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL); Wellington High School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade C+, #102 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,688 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 616 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,662 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,264
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11995 Shakerwood Ln	0.14mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,577 (+5%)	18mo	$290,000	$184	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-62,623
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-70,646
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33414

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 616
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,073/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,244

Max offer price $317,279

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11862 Brier Patch Ct E Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1320	$3,500	$2.65	24d	1	0.04mi
11830 Brier Patch Ct E Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$2,750	$1.84	24d	1	0.04mi
11883 Sturbridge Ln Unit 11883 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	24d	1	0.09mi
1569 Shaker Cir Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1577	$3,500	$2.22	24d	1	0.10mi
11890 Sturbridge Ln Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	997	$1,795	$1.80	7d	1	0.11mi
11925 Suellen Cir Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,700	$1.59	21d	1	0.13mi
11937 Sturbridge Ln Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	24d	1	0.14mi
1604 Shaker Cir Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.15mi
1520 Shaker Cir Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1622	$3,000	$1.85	24d	1	0.18mi
1453 White Pine Dr Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1492	$2,900	$1.94	7d	1	0.21mi
1437 White Pine Dr Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1172	$2,300	$1.96	7d	1	0.23mi
1403 White Pine Dr Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$2,400	$1.66	7d	1	0.26mi
1382 Birkdale Dr Unit 1388 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,400	$2.45	14d	1	0.28mi
1348 The 12th Fairway Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$2,800	$1.94	24d	1	0.28mi
1456 Waterway Cove Dr Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$3,650	$2.30	24d	1	0.29mi
1352 Wyndcliff Dr Wellington, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$5,000	$2.87	24d	1	0.30mi
1665 Cabot Ln Unit A4 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1315	$2,500	$1.90	16d	1	0.37mi
1665 Cabot Ln Unit A3 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1315	$2,500	$1.90	24d	1	0.37mi
12244 Sag Harbor Ct #2 Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,000	$1.81	24d	1	0.41mi
11770 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1403	$3,500	$2.49	7d	4	0.41mi
11770 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1403	$3,500	$2.49	21d	5	0.41mi
11780 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1482	$2,800	$1.89	24d	3	0.42mi
11780 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1403	$2,800	$2.00	7d	3	0.42mi
11790 Saint Andrews Pl #302 Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,780	$1.88	4d	1	0.43mi
11750 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1351	$2,700	$2.00	24d	2	0.44mi
11750 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1351	$2,700	$2.00	24d	2	0.44mi
11790 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1405	$2,950	$2.10	16d	3	0.44mi
11790 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1405	$2,780	$1.98	3d	2	0.44mi
11771 Saint Andrews Pl #101 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1401	$6,800	$4.85	20d	1	0.44mi
11771 Saint Andrews Pl #104 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1401	$2,700	$1.93	3d	1	0.44mi
11775 Saint Andrews Pl #103 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1427	$5,500	$3.85	1d	1	0.44mi
11785 Saint Andrews Pl #106 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1401	$3,000	$2.14	18d	1	0.45mi
11789 Saint Andrews Pl #103 Wellington, FL	2.0	2.5	1427	$2,800	$1.96	24d	1	0.45mi
12781 Peconic Ct Wellington, FL	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,950	$1.94	2d	1	0.46mi
11740 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$5,350	$3.44	7d	2	0.47mi
11740 St Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$5,500	$3.72	24d	1	0.47mi
11730 Saint Andrews Pl #302 Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$3,000	$2.03	24d	1	0.48mi
12738 Peconic Ct Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,800	$1.96	16d	1	0.49mi
11720 Saint Andrews Pl Wellington, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1405	$6,000	$4.27	19d	2	0.49mi
1379 Pinetta Cir Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$3,350	$2.31	24d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-19
   listed $335,000 Active
4. 2025-10-07
   historical
5. 2025-07-28
   listed $355,000 Active
6. 2025-07-22
   historical
7. 2025-07-08
   historical $6,000
8. 2025-06-02
   price $6,000
9. 2025-05-20
   price $2,900
10. 2025-05-01
    listed $3,000
11. 2024-05-28
    historical $3,500
12. 2024-04-27
    listed $3,500
13. 2021-04-22
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Feel right at home in this two-story townhouse in the community of Brier Patch, which has twenty-eight colonial-style townhomes. This corner lot three bedrooms, two and a half bath home features a new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, a spacious living room, large screened-in cover patio, and much more. Located within walking distance to the Wellington Town Center and close to schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and restaurants.

14. 2021-03-26
    status Pending 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Feel right at home in this two-story townhouse in the community of Brier Patch, which has twenty-eight colonial-style townhomes. This corner lot three bedrooms, two and a half bath home features a new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, a spacious living room, large screened-in cover patio, and much more. Located within walking distance to the Wellington Town Center and close to schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and restaurants.

15. 2021-03-24
    listed $234,999 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Feel right at home in this two-story townhouse in the community of Brier Patch, which has twenty-eight colonial-style townhomes. This corner lot three bedrooms, two and a half bath home features a new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, a spacious living room, large screened-in cover patio, and much more. Located within walking distance to the Wellington Town Center and close to schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and restaurants.

16. 2012-09-13
    soldstatus $115,000
17. 2012-08-28
    soldstatus $115,000
18. 2012-07-11
    historical
19. 2012-07-02
    listed $123,500
20. 2011-07-03
    historical
21. 2011-04-18
    listed $119,900
22. 2011-01-04
    soldstatus $82,000
23. 2010-12-28
    soldstatus $82,000
24. 2010-12-15
    historical
25. 2009-09-14
    historical
26. 2009-09-14
    listed $94,000
27. 2009-04-02
    listed $124,900
28. 2003-07-07
    soldstatus $126,000
29. 2001-10-18
    soldstatus $100,000
30. 1996-01-04
    soldstatus $63,900
31. 1995-02-08
    soldstatus $63,000
32. 1993-10-18
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,073 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,073 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$6,073
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,992
• − Management: −$2,992
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$6,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,623
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellington, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 60,184
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,184
• Household income: $112,241
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 6% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.58%
• Current HPI: 352.9366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+415.4% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $335,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $355,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-22 Coming Soon — Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-08 Rental Removed $6,000 GFLMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $6,000 GFLMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $2,900 GFLMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $3,000 GFLMLS
• 2024-05-28 Rental Removed $3,500 RENT.
• 2024-04-27 Listed for Rent $3,500 RENT.
• 2021-04-22 Sold (MLS) $255,000 MARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Pending — MARMLS
• 2021-03-24 Listed $234,999 MARMLS
• 2012-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-28 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Beaches MLS
• 2012-07-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2012-07-02 Listed $123,500 Beaches MLS
• 2011-07-03 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-04-18 Listed $119,900 Beaches MLS
• 2011-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-28 Sold (MLS) $82,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-12-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2009-09-14 Listed $94,000 Beaches MLS
• 2009-09-14 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2009-04-02 Listed $124,900 Beaches MLS
• 2003-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $63,900 Public Records
• 1995-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1993-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,073 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.