15409 Gun Cay Ct #103

Corpus Christi, TX 78418

$149,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 633 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,474/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,087/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Flour Bluff ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Flour Bluff El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 53% FRL); Flour Bluff J H (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 919 students, 46% FRL); Flour Bluff H S (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,958 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $149k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?