15409 Gun Cay Ct #103 · Corpus Christi, TX 78418

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 633 sqft · Condo public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1983 $235/sqft · 17% below area Est $178k · 17% under $250/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront condo offering a fantastic opportunity to embrace the coastal lifestyle without the typical coastal price tag. Situated on the canals of North Padre Island, this condo is the definition of "lock-and-leave" living, featuring an easily maintained layout that keeps your weekends free for the water rather than chores. An affordable find in today’s market, with a low monthly HOA fee of just $250. Comes with all appliances, including full size washer/dryer and refrigerator, and even has power retractable hurricane shades. Includes boat slip (no lift), and 1 assigned parking space. The covered patio is the ultimate spot to relax and take in those breathtaking Texas sunsets. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a manageable weekend retreat, or a rental investment (short term not allowed), this unit offers the perfect balance of comfort, convenience, and unbeatable views. HVAC replaced 2021 approx.

Key facts

• Waterfront condo
• Covered patio
• Boat slip

Tags

• WATERFRONT CONDO
• CANALS OF NORTH PADRE ISLAND
• LOCK-AND-LEAVE LIVING
• EASILY MAINTAINED LAYOUT
• BOAT SLIP
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Flour Bluff ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Flour Bluff El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 53% FRL); Flour Bluff J H (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 919 students, 46% FRL); Flour Bluff H S (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,958 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $149k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,271 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,482
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -16.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-39,332
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-64,350
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78418

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,942/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $118,271

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-132	+0% $-174	+5% $-216	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-232	+0% $-174	+5% $-116	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-136	base $-174	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13958 Fortuna Bay Dr Unit J Corpus Christi, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$1,350	$2.67	45d	1	0.08mi
13997 Fortuna Bay Dr #203 Corpus Christi, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$1,500	$2.37	23d	1	0.12mi
14721 Whitecap Blvd #323 Corpus Christi, TX	1.0	1.0	565	$1,800	$3.19	23d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $149,000 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Waterfront condo offering a fantastic opportunity to embrace the coastal lifestyle without the typical coastal price tag. Situated on the canals of North Padre Island, this condo is the definition of "lock-and-leave" living, featuring an easily maintained layout that keeps your weekends free for the water rather than chores. An affordable find in today’s market, with a low monthly HOA fee of just $250. Comes with all appliances, including full size washer/dryer and refrigerator, and even has power retractable hurricane shades. Includes boat slip (no lift), and 1 assigned parking space. The covered patio is the ultimate spot to relax and take in those breathtaking Texas sunsets. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a manageable weekend retreat, or a rental investment (short term not allowed), this unit offers the perfect balance of comfort, convenience, and unbeatable views. HVAC replaced 2021 approx.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $149,000 Active 1435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1435 chars)

    This waterfront gem offers a rare fantastic opportunity to embrace the coastal lifestyle without the typical coastal price tag. Perfectly situated on the Laguna Madre canals of North Padre Island, this condo is the definition of "lock-and-leave" living, featuring an easily maintained layout that keeps your weekends free for the water rather than chores. It is truly an affordable find in today’s market, especially considering the low monthly HOA fee of just $250 and an HVAC replaced in 2021 (approx), which helps keep your cost of ownership predictable and manageable. In addition, this condo comes with all appliances, including full size washer/dryer and refrigerator, and even has power retractable hurricane shades for waterfront side of the unit. The standout feature for any boater is the included boat slip, providing you with immediate access to the Laguna Madre right from your doorstep. After a day out on the bay, you can return home to your own assigned parking space and unwind on the private covered patio. It’s the ultimate spot to relax and take in those breathtaking Texas sunsets as the sky turns vibrant shades of orange and pink over the water. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a manageable weekend retreat, or a rental investment (short term not allowed), this unit offers the perfect balance of comfort, convenience, and unbeatable views. Book your property tour today.

19. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus
20. 2002-05-23
    soldstatus $43,200
21. 2002-05-17
    soldstatus
22. 2002-02-22
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,942
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flour Bluff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819380
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,162
• Composite: 40.96/100
• National rank: #3604
• State rank: #209 of 826 in TX

Livability — Corpus Christi

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2404

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corpus Christi, TX
• County: Nueces County · 296,836 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,790
• Household income: $92,445
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.81%
• Current HPI: 193.902
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+198.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $149,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $43,200 Public Records
• 2002-05-17 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2002-02-22 Listed $49,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,942 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.