15918 Pinyon Creek Dr

Houston, TX 77095

$276,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,336 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax + insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-388/mo
• Annual: $-4,660/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $77,532

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fiest El (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Labay Middle (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,199 students, 70% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $277k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?