15918 Pinyon Creek Dr · Houston, TX 77095

$276,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1984 7,788 sqft lot $119/sqft · 13% below area Est $319k · 13% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this Fabulous maintained 2 story 4 bedroom 2.5 bath house 2,336 SqFt of living space in the community of Copperfield Middlegate Village. Beautiful fresh paint inside. The chef's kitchen has gas range, beautiful countertops and plenty of cabinets for storage. The spacious living room with fireplace is great place for your to entertain your guests. Large primary bedroom, bathroom with double vanities, separate glass enclosed shower, garden soaking tub and a sizable primary closet. The kitchen & breakfast area are open to family room w/fireplace. The backyard offers ample space for relaxation and entertainment. The property is conveniently located near major roads and Highway 6, providing easy access to groceries, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today! Room dimensions are approximate and must be verified independently.

Key facts

• Plenty of cabinets
• Chef's kitchen
• Gas range

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fiest El (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Labay Middle (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,199 students, 70% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $277k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,304 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,236
• List price: $276,900
• Delta: -13.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8403 Hot Springs Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,336 (0%)	1mo	$315,000	$135	96
15947 Pinyon Creek Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,333 (-0%)	2mo	$318,800	$137	94
16034 Sweetwater Creek Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-4%)	3mo	$314,800	$141	80
16047 Pinyon Creek Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,492 (+7%)	1mo	$340,000	$136	77
8014 Green Devon Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,550 (+9%)	2mo	$345,000	$135	70
8203 Green Devon Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,575 (+10%)	2mo	$264,900	$103	69
8655 Plum Lake Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,076 (-11%)	1mo	$360,000	$173	66
8407 Windy Cove Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,301 (-2%)	1mo	$274,000	$119	64
16114 Kintyre Point Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,622 (+12%)	0mo	$339,000	$129	60
7911 Millbrook Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,640 (+13%)	2mo	$340,000	$129	52
16335 Drystone	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,608 (+12%)	2mo	$415,000	$159	51
15806 Oak Mountain Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (-12%)	1mo	$295,000	$144	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-46,690
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-56,455
• Equity at exit: $71,569

Cash invested: $77,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,540/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $208,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-232	-5% $-310	+0% $-388	+5% $-467	+10% $-545
Rent	-10% $-558	-5% $-473	+0% $-388	+5% $-303	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-318	base $-388	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,225
• Closing costs: $8,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8559 Spring Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,749	$1.00	4d	1	0.39mi
7711 Thorncreek Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2085	$2,075	$1.00	9d	1	0.91mi
16303 Hickory Point Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2556	$2,400	$0.94	4d	1	0.94mi
14818 Chetland Place Dr Unit CHEP18-1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2490	$2,100	$0.84	45d	1	0.97mi
7415 Broken Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2416	$2,245	$0.93	45d	1	1.06mi
8335 Columbia Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1767	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	1.28mi
8738 Willancy Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2636	$2,400	$0.91	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $276,900 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,900 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,900 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,900 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,900 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,900 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,900 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,900 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,900 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $276,900 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,900 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,900 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    historical $2,100
17. 2026-01-09
    price $276,900 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Welcome to this Fabulous maintained 2 story 4 bedroom 2.5 bath house 2,336 SqFt of living space in the community of Copperfield Middlegate Village. Beautiful fresh paint inside. The chef's kitchen has gas range, beautiful countertops and plenty of cabinets for storage. The spacious living room with fireplace is great place for your to entertain your guests. Large primary bedroom, bathroom with double vanities, separate glass enclosed shower, garden soaking tub and a sizable primary closet. The kitchen & breakfast area are open to family room w/fireplace. The backyard offers ample space for relaxation and entertainment. The property is conveniently located near major roads and Highway 6, providing easy access to groceries, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today! Room dimensions are approximate and must be verified independently.

18. 2025-12-27
    listed $286,990 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Welcome to this Fabulous maintained 2 story 4 bedroom 2.5 bath house 2,336 SqFt of living space in the community of Copperfield Middlegate Village. Beautiful fresh paint inside. The chef's kitchen has gas range, beautiful countertops and plenty of cabinets for storage. The spacious living room with fireplace is great place for your to entertain your guests. Large primary bedroom, bathroom with double vanities, separate glass enclosed shower, garden soaking tub and a sizable primary closet. The kitchen & breakfast area are open to family room w/fireplace. The backyard offers ample space for relaxation and entertainment. The property is conveniently located near major roads and Highway 6, providing easy access to groceries, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today! Room dimensions are approximate and must be verified independently.

19. 2025-12-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Welcome to this Fabulous maintained 2 story 4 bedroom 2.5 bath house 2,336 SqFt of living space in the community of Copperfield Middlegate Village. Beautiful fresh paint inside. The chef's kitchen has gas range, beautiful countertops and plenty of cabinets for storage. The spacious living room with fireplace is great place for your to entertain your guests. Large primary bedroom, bathroom with double vanities, separate glass enclosed shower, garden soaking tub and a sizable primary closet. The kitchen & breakfast area are open to family room w/fireplace. The backyard offers ample space for relaxation and entertainment. The property is conveniently located near major roads and Highway 6, providing easy access to groceries, dining, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today! Room dimensions are approximate and must be verified independently.

20. 2025-12-03
    listed $2,100
21. 2025-11-15
    price $286,990
22. 2025-11-08
    price $292,000
23. 2025-09-18
    price $296,999
24. 2025-08-27
    historical $2,200
25. 2025-08-23
    listed $2,200
26. 2025-08-15
    price $304,999
27. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,200
28. 2025-06-21
    listed $310,000 Active
29. 2025-04-23
    listed $2,200
30. 2023-08-27
    historical
31. 2023-08-23
    status Active
32. 2023-08-17
    status Pending
33. 2023-07-29
    status Option Pending
34. 2023-07-14
    listed $299,900 Active
35. 2023-07-14
    historical
36. 2023-07-07
    status Active
37. 2023-07-05
    historical
38. 2023-06-08
    price $289,900
39. 2023-06-08
    status Active
40. 2023-06-05
    status Option Pending
41. 2023-04-22
    listed $292,000 Active
42. 2023-04-05
    historical
43. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus
44. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus Sold
45. 2022-01-21
    status Pending
46. 2022-01-13
    status Option Pending
47. 2022-01-10
    price $259,000
48. 2022-01-08
    listed $275,000 Active
49. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus
50. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,540 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,540 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,511
• − Property taxes: −$5,540
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,055
• Taxable loss: −$9,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $276,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $292,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $296,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $304,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-08-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-07-14 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2023-07-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2023-06-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-22 Listed $292,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-08 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2009-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-21 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2009-07-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-09 Listed $134,990 HARMLS
• 1998-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,540 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.