33400 S Melanie Ln

Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$250,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,461/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.