33400 S Melanie Ln · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1978 0.57 ac lot Est $232k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the city and enjoy the peaceful lifestyle of Black Canyon City! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits on over half an acre, offering plenty of space and privacy. The property features a detached 2-car garage, perfect for parking, storage, or a workshop. With wide open space, there's room for RV parking, toys, gardening, or future improvements. This home is move in ready and even has a new roof. Enjoy the beautiful desert surroundings, mountain views, and quiet small-town feel while still being within driving distance of Phoenix. Whether you're looking for a full-time home, winter getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers great potential.

Key facts

• Wide open space
• New roof
• Desert surroundings

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• NEW ROOF
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DESERT SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert landscaping in the back; Gravel/stone in the front yard; Grass in the back yard; Chain link and partial wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,185 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,260
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33487 S Ha Wa Si Trl	0.20mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$240	75
33321 S Jeanne Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	14mo	$250,000	$237	69
20310 E Chrysocolla Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+10%)	16mo	$235,000	$217	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $117,814
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $361,443
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $208,263

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-202	+0% $-288	+5% $-375	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-360	+0% $-288	+5% $-216	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-225	base $-288	+0.5pp $-353	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-05
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2026-01-09
   soldstatus $125,000
6. 1981-02-18
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4066.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1981-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $159 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.