111 Red Bluff Dr

Hickory Creek, TX 75065

$624,900B-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,597 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax + insurance: −$1,208
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,703
• Net cashflow: $5,640/mo
• Annual: $67,678/yr
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $174,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $625k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $606k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#238 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Dallas ISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #413 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Dallas El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 63% FRL); Lake Dallas Middle (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 902 students, 42% FRL); Lake Dallas H S (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 1,293 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $309k; list at $625k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 2.6% in Hickory Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.