111 Red Bluff Dr · Hickory Creek, TX 75065

$624,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1999 0.50 ac lot $174/sqft · 20% above area Est $570k · 10% over $42/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome inside this absolutely stunning, immaculate move in ready Standard Pacific home in the prestigious Lakeview at Point Vista neighborhood. Brick and stone exterior, 3 car garage, stunning landscaping, trees and a serene tranquil back yard will have you dreaming of relaxing on the screened in back porch. The light and open floor plan with soaring ceilings is perfect for any family gathering or entertaining you can imagine. Gourmet kitchen with 42 inch cabinets, granite counters, tile back splash, breakfast bar, island, butlers pantry, stainless appliances all over looking the breakfast and living room. The expansive primary bedroom leads to the completely remodeled primary bathroom hig

Key facts

• His and her sinks
• Gourmet kitchen
• Huge walk in shower

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE EXTERIOR
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HUGE WALK IN SHOWER
• JACUZZI TUB
• HIS AND HER SINKS
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community pool, greenbelt and park
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee of $500; HOA covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA management: Insight

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front; 3 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Interior lot
• Construction: Built in 1999; Brick and rock/stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered and screened porch; Gutters; Covered porch(es); Sprinkler system; Landscaped lot with many trees; Heavily wooded vegetation; Storage and workshop with electricity on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Butler's pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with fireplace, jetted tub, separate shower, dual sinks, linen closet and walk-in closet; One main-level bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on second level with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas) with zoned controls; Central air with electric and zoned controls; Ceiling fans; Tankless water heater
• Interior features: Built-in features and cabinets; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Double vanity; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; In-law suite floorplan; Kitchen island; Loft; Multiple staircases; Open floorplan; Sound system wiring; Walk-in closets; Wet bar; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $625k).
• Recommended offer: $606k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 2.6% in Hickory Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#238 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Dallas ISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #413 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Dallas El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $309k; list at $625k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $606,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $569,504
• List price: $624,900
• Delta: 9.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Red Bluff Ct	0.12mi	4/3.0	3,383 (-6%)	1mo	$724,900	$214	82
142 Whitney Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5	3,804 (+6%)	13mo	$675,000	$177	75
251 Barkley Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,461 (-4%)	1mo	$649,900	$188	71
146 Shasta Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	3,293 (-8%)	3mo	$619,900	$188	71
1106 Ellard Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,392 (-6%)	2mo	$1,100,000	$324	69
201 Barkley Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	3,243 (-10%)	7mo	$579,900	$179	66
103 Lakehill Ct	0.29mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,512 (-2%)	12mo	$679,000	$193	65
219 Livingston Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	3,169 (-12%)	1mo	$545,000	$172	60
242 Livingston Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	3,203 (-11%)	2mo	$585,000	$183	59
138 Nix Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	3,062 (-15%)	10mo	$525,000	$171	57
116 Deerpath Rd	0.52mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,459 (-4%)	9mo	$525,000	$152	57
115 Lakehill Ct	0.33mi	4/3.0	3,243 (-10%)	12mo	$875,000	$270	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $258,266
• Equity at exit: $93,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $688,736
• Equity at exit: $54,030

Cash invested: $174,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75065

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax from tax record: −$948 /mo · $11,372/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,703
• Net cashflow: $5,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,731

Max offer price $624,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,994	-5% $5,817	+0% $5,640	+5% $5,463	+10% $5,286
Rent	-10% $4,623	-5% $5,131	+0% $5,640	+5% $6,148	+10% $6,657
Rate	-1.0pp $5,955	-0.5pp $5,799	base $5,640	+0.5pp $5,478	+1.0pp $5,313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,225
• Closing costs: $18,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Barkley Dr Unit 1391266P Hickory Creek, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$15,242	$4.71	25d	1	0.22mi
201 Barkley Dr Lake Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	3243	$10,500	$3.24	23d	1	0.22mi
5429 Prince Dr Lake Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2565	$2,495	$0.97	12d	1	1.04mi
123 Derby Ln Lake Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,900	$1.14	9d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $624,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $624,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $624,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $624,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $624,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $624,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $624,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $624,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $634,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $634,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $634,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $634,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $634,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $634,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $634,900 Active 1341-char remark
16. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $309,000
17. 2003-04-29
    historical
18. 2003-03-21
    listed $319,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,372 · $948/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,436 · $953/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $154,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,004
• − Property taxes: −$11,372
• − Insurance: −$3,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,355
• − Management: −$12,355
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$18,179
• Taxable income: $61,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,770
• After-tax cash flow: $52,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826430
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $76,645
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5287
• State rank: #413 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hickory Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #5782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hickory Creek, TX
• City population: 13,046
• Population (ZIP): 13,046

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Korean 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.91%
• Current HPI: 300.0981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $624,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $634,900 NTREIS
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $309,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-03-21 Listed $319,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,372 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.