3653 Saguaro Dr

Grand Prairie, TX 75052

$509,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax + insurance: −$850
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-1,406/mo
• Annual: $-16,869/yr
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.81%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $142,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $510k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (47.4% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($464k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Grand Prairie ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #572 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 287 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.