3653 Saguaro Dr · Grand Prairie, TX 75052

$509,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Land · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 $219/sqft · at area comps Est $514k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Grand Prairie ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #572 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 287 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($464k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $268,191 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.81%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $514,231
• List price: $509,990
• Delta: -0.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-179,787
• Equity at exit: $76,041

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-301,310
• Equity at exit: $44,095

Cash invested: $142,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75052

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$637 /mo · $7,650/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-1,406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,461

Max offer price $306,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,053	-5% $-1,229	+0% $-1,406	+5% $-1,582	+10% $-1,758
Rent	-10% $-1,618	-5% $-1,512	+0% $-1,406	+5% $-1,300	+10% $-1,194
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,149	-0.5pp $-1,276	base $-1,406	+0.5pp $-1,538	+1.0pp $-1,672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,498
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2136 Dayton Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$7,900	$3.42	44d	1	0.24mi
2136 Dayton Ln Unit 1019626P Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2303	$12,424	$5.39	22d	1	0.24mi
3740 Pierce Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	3.5	2100	$3,300	$1.57	44d	1	0.42mi
3705 Pierce Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$3,000	$1.65	25d	1	0.43mi
2468 Ranchview Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.49mi
2410 Lost Mesa Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,900	$1.31	44d	1	0.64mi
2504 Frontier Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2541	$2,820	$1.11	44d	1	0.69mi
2361 Shirecreek Cir Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,675	$1.03	44d	1	0.78mi
4105 Devon Ct Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	3.0	1973	$1,100	$0.56	44d	1	0.90mi
854 Timberdale St Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,200	$1.36	44d	1	0.90mi
3156 Pine Valley Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,760	$1.20	7d	1	0.97mi
819 Over Ridge Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,500	$1.22	21d	1	1.17mi
2510 Bentley Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,211	$1.35	44d	1	1.18mi
4255 Fall Creek Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	2264	$2,600	$1.15	44d	1	1.27mi
618 Thornwood Trl Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,465	$1.37	2d	1	1.28mi
2645 Danberry Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1595	$2,219	$1.39	20d	1	1.29mi
860 Roaring Springs Rd Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	2857	$2,716	$0.95	25d	1	1.30mi
3914 Willowood Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1963	$2,519	$1.28	8d	1	1.36mi
2661 Claremont Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,106	$1.14	44d	1	1.39mi
2661 Claremont Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,985	$1.08	25d	1	1.39mi
2901 W Bardin Rd Grand Prairie, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1703	$3,224	$1.89	2d	6	1.43mi
2901 Bardin Rd Unit 19443 Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	1.45mi
1627 Wintercrest Rd Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,350	$1.44	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $509,990 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $509,990 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $509,990 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $509,990 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   price $509,990 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

6. 2026-05-08
   price $506,990 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

7. 2026-04-21
   price $504,990 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

8. 2026-03-12
   price $500,990 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

9. 2026-02-25
   listed $498,990 Active 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   The property is located at 3653 SAGUARO DR GRAND PRAIRIE TX 75052 priced at 509990, the square foot and stories are 2330, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,567
• − Property taxes: −$7,650
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,575
• − Management: −$2,575
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$26,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Prairie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821420
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,094
• Composite: 27.95/100
• National rank: #6861
• State rank: #572 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grand Prairie

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1660

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Prairie, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 201,439
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 97,278
• Household income: $89,301
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3118.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 29% White 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 27% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.08%
• Current HPI: 289.3711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $509,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $506,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $504,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $500,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Listed $498,990 Zillow