12465 Ann Dr

Blair, NE 68008

$89,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$505
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $772/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($772/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#25 in NE, #1,668 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Blair Community Schools (town): math 55% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #46 of 111 in NE (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Blair North Elementary School (172 students, 36% FRL); Gerald Otte Blair Middle Sch (math 62% / reading 55%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 506 students, 26% FRL); Blair High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 710 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.2% in Blair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.