3343 Union Branch Rd

Petersburg, VA 23805

$151,000B

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,059 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $590/mo
• Annual: $7,082/yr
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $42,280

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $151k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.