3343 Union Branch Rd · Petersburg, VA 23805

$151,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,059 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1972 1.40 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Investors! This Prince George County Tri-level boast 4 bedrooms 3.5 baths situated on 1.4 acres of land. This home will need some major renovation work. At almost 4000 sq ft this house offers spacious bedrooms, living room and rec room. This home is also conviently located within mins to major highways, shopping and Fort Lee. HUD Case# 541-790075 UI (Uninsured), Subject to Appraisal. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are Sold “As-Is”. Built prior to 1978, lead based paint may potentially exist. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer’s closing costs, upon buyer request.

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,410 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,446
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3343 Union Branch Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,059 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$70	99
11601 Mark Twain Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,985 (-4%)	21mo	$289,000	$146	63
11365 Cedar Run Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+0%)	13mo	$399,900	$194	59
3510 Tom Sawyer Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-13%)	6mo	$360,000	$200	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,182
• Equity at exit: $22,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $60,135
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23805

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,872/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $151,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $633	+0% $590	+5% $547	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $506	+0% $590	+5% $674	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $629	base $590	+0.5pp $551	+1.0pp $511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2810 Tavern Rd South Prince George, VA	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,600	$1.03	3d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $151,000 Active
3. 2025-06-16
   historical
4. 2025-06-13
   status Active
5. 2025-04-20
   status Pending
6. 2025-02-14
   listed $216,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,872 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,872 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,872
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable income: $5,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $5,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Petersburg City · 21,408 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,408
• Household income: $60,807
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.37%
• Current HPI: 426.599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $151,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-04-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $216,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,872 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.