202 E Arbor St

Marcellus, MI 49067

$145,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-775/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-775/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#202 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marcellus Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #332 of 540 in MI (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.