27 Gillen Ave Unit 207B

Pawtucket, RI 02904

$185,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$354
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-749/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-749/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#16 in RI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• North Providence (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #22 of 39 in RI (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Pawtucket — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.