1600 E Vista Way #23

Vista, CA 92084

$280,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$453
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $219/mo
• Annual: $2,623/yr
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#584 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Casita Center For Science/Math/Technology (683 students, 40% FRL); Vista Magnet Middle School of Technology Science And Math (819 students, 66% FRL); Vista High (math 18% / reading 47%, grade F, #669 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 2,030 students, 72% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Vista Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $280k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.