3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
768 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,745/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$314
Tax + insurance
−$100
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$576
Net cashflow
$1,755/mo
Annual
$21,056/yr
Cap rate
41.44%
Cash-on-cash
125.54%
DSCR
6.59
1% rule
4.58%
Cash to close
$16,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 41.4% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— The siding appears weathered and possibly peeling.
Major: roof
— The roof appears old and may need replacement.
Major: landscaping
— The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, detracting from curb appeal.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VG34EC2Y9N0YS7
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29