2872 W River Rd

Blodgett Mills, NY 13045

$40,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $757/mo
• Annual: $9,086/yr
• Cap rate: 29.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.13%
• DSCR: 4.61
• 1% rule: 3.53%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#709 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Mcgraw Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #252 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.