2872 W River Rd · Blodgett Mills, NY 13045

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1965 2.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded property in need of extensive renovation. Roll up your sleeves and jump into this project! This structure is comprised of two manufactured homes connected, with an exterior wall and roof added. It will need structural work in some areas. Sitting on just over 2 wooded acres, this property is close to state land, Greek Peak, and just a few miles away from Rt 81. Great spot to enjoy seclusion, the outdoors, and quick access to amenities!

Key facts

• Extensive renovation
• Wooded acres
• Secluded property

Tags

• SECLUDED PROPERTY
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATION
• TWO MANUFACTURED HOMES
• WOODED ACRES
• CLOSE TO STATE LAND
• QUICK ACCESS TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#709 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Mcgraw Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #252 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.13%
• DSCR: 4.61
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $49,289
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.8%
• Equity multiple: 13.44×
• Total profit: $139,321
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13045

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Secluded property in need of extensive renovation. Roll up your sleeves and jump into this project! This structure is comprised of two manufactured homes connected, with an exterior wall and roof added. It will need structural work in some areas. Sitting on just over 2 wooded acres, this property is close to state land, Greek Peak, and just a few miles away from Rt 81. Great spot to enjoy seclusion, the outdoors, and quick access to amenities!

2. 2026-02-25
   listed $40,000 Active 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Secluded property in need of extensive renovation. Roll up your sleeves and jump into this project! This structure is comprised of two manufactured homes connected, with an exterior wall and roof added. It will need structural work in some areas. Sitting on just over 2 wooded acres, this property is close to state land, Greek Peak, and just a few miles away from Rt 81. Great spot to enjoy seclusion, the outdoors, and quick access to amenities!

3. 2025-12-27
   historical
4. 2025-11-11
   status Active
5. 2025-11-09
   status Pending
6. 2025-06-27
   listed $50,000 Active
7. 2023-10-12
   soldstatus $35,000 Closed Sale or Rented
8. 2023-07-26
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
9. 2023-06-16
   listed $49,900 Active
10. 1995-03-16
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,048
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,171
• After-tax cash flow: $6,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgraw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618840
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,404
• Composite: 50.37/100
• National rank: #1875
• State rank: #252 of 590 in NY

Livability — Blodgett Mills

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #709
• US rank: #13501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cortland County · 28,361 people
• City population: 22
• Metro: Cortland, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,361
• Household income: $69,961
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.78%
• Current HPI: 289.515
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.37%
• Metro: Cortland, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $40,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-11-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $50,000 CNYIS
• 2023-10-12 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CNYIS
• 2023-07-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-06-16 Listed $49,900 CNYIS
• 1995-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,600 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.