316 Main St

Clayton, NM 88415

$154,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · Built 1955 · Other · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $32/mo
• Annual: $382/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $43,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($382/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#71 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Clayton Municipal Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #14 of 95 in NM (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.
• Union County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.