316 Main St · Clayton, NM 88415

$154,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · Other · 99 Days on market

Built 1955 4,370 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,370 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered/garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Adobe and stucco construction; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fenced yard with wood and stone fencing; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace insert heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Storm windows; Basement; Wood-burning fireplace with insert

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($382/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#71 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Clayton Municipal Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #14 of 95 in NM (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,224 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,088
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,815
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88415

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $76	+0% $32	+5% $-12	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-15	+0% $32	+5% $79	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $71	base $32	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $154,500 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,500 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-03-27
   price $154,500
10. 2026-03-02
    listed $159,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$810/yr (+$68/mo · 190.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$559
• After-tax cash flow: $941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500510
• Math proficiency: 36% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $37,808
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10400
• State rank: #14 of 95 in NM

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #14705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,143

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,632 people
• By 2030: 3,403 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 3,115 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 2,838 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 2,097 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 1,481 · -59.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+56.2 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+43.4 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.42%
• Current HPI: 123.6201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $154,500 NMMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $159,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.