2803 S 23rd St

New Castle, IN 47362

$84,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,259/yr
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.55%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $23,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($935 rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#64 in IN, #4,219 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• New Castle Community School Corporation (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #229 of 301 in IN (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastwood Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #697 of 994 statewide, top 73%, 274 students, 82% FRL); New Castle Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 330 statewide, top 74%, 666 students, 61% FRL); New Castle High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #221 of 369 statewide, top 63%, 836 students, 56% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.8% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.