202 Mountain Ash Ln

Williamsville, MO 63901

$179,000D-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2003 · Other · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $80/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#588 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.